Thursday, September 10, 2015

Odds are

Saw a story today about Vegas gambling odds for the upcoming NFL season, and you’ll be happy to know you could make some large coin betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Right now they’re 300-­to-­1 to reach the Super Bowl.

That seems a trifle high to me. I had ’em at 298­-to-­1.

The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, are a somewhat better bet, coming in at 8-­to-­1. That, in turn, seems a trifle low to me, if only because I don’t entirely trust the Colts’ depth or the ability of their offensive line to keep Andrew Luck from running for his life back there like Dr. Richard  Kimble.

But then I look at their schedule, and at who else is out there in the AFC, and I ... well, reassess.

The schedule, first of all, is softer than Charmin. The competition in the AFC South is, shall we say, not notably testy. The rest of it includes the up­-and-coming Bills, the possibly resurgent Steelers and Dolphins and the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots.

Aside from that, who’s there for them? The regressing Saints and a Drew Brees stripped of all his weapons? The equally regressing Broncos and a Peyton Manning who seems finally to be showing signs of taking a step backward? The all­-D­-no-­O Jets?


And so, OK, yes, in retrospect, maybe 8-­to-­1 seems about right after all. It ties the Horsies with the Patriots and the Eagles, behind only the Seahawks (the top odds at 9­-to-­2) and the Packers (6-­to-­1). That suggests that once again the NFC is the better conference, and it’s pretty hard to argue otherwise.

After all, in the AFC, who do the Colts have to worry about outside of the Patriots?

The Steelers?'

Yeah, maybe.

The Ravens?


Who else?

The Bills, who seem a quarterback shy of real contender status? The perpetually underachieving Bengals? The Broncos? The Chiefs? The Jets or Dolphins?

Just not seeing much there. And so, yeah, I’ll go along with Vegas on this one.

Colts vs. Seahawks. Super Bowl Fi’ty. Be there or be square.

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