Sunday, January 7, 2024

Almost there

 Possibly overheard on the Indianapolis sideline last night with 1:06 remaining and the Colts at fourth-and-one on the Houston Texans' 15 ...

"I know! Let's throw a pass to a backup running back! They'll never see THAT coming!"

"What's that, Jonathan? Oh, no, that's OK. You need a break. Take a load off, son."

"Yes, that's right, Gardner. It's fourth-and-one and we're gonna throw. What do you mean we should go with a robust set and run a quarterback sneak? That's just dumb."

And of course ...

"Dammit! And it was such a good play we called!"

 But Gardner Minshew's pass was a touch behind backup running back Tyler Goodson, and he dropped it, and the Texans took over on downs. And there was your season, Horsie Nation.

Houston 23, Indy 19. The Texans finish 10-7 and make the playoffs; the Colts finish 9-8 and don't. And if all of Indianapolis and probably America will wonder why Tyler Goodson was in the game down at the end and Jonathan Taylor wasn't ... well, if it was gonna end, it probably had to end with something weird like that.

The season,  after all, was weird in its own way, what with the Colts losing prize rookie Anthony Richardson five games in, and Taylor sideline for a stretch and the Shaq Leonard era ending with such shocking suddenness. Oh, and injuries whittling the defensive backfield down to nothing ... and the Colts , beating the Ravens on the road and losing by 19 to the Falcons ... and Minshew being Minshew -- i.e., a real live NFL quarterback one week, and what-the-hell-was-that the next.

But you know the weirdest thing?

Horsie Nation grinding its teeth to dust at the end last night, because the Colts won only nine games and not the 10th they needed  to win.

And, sure, absolutely, that last play will forever be a head-scratcher, and rightly leaves everyone thinking that once again the Colts blew it. Statistics are for losers, we all know that, but it's hard to fathom how the Colts lost a game in which they outgained the Texans 360-306, and had five more first downs (21-16), and threw Taylor at Houston 30 times for 188 yards. And averaged 6.1 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per play.

The answer is they didn't do any of that when it mattered most, right down to the curious final snap. The Colts were 0-for-3 in the red zone. They were 1-for-11 on third down and 0-for-1 on fourth down. And the defense sacked C.J. Stroud just twice and failed to turn over the Texans a single time.

Sooo ... 9-8 instead of 10-7. Which, drawing back to take the longer view, is hella encouraging given what it could have been, and maybe even should have been.

Back in August, after all, the prevailing wisdom that the Colts were going to suck like a Hoover upright. More than a few of the supposed wise guys were saying they'd be lucky to win five games. Several of those wise guys (including this one) were predicting the Colts would finish 4-13.

And then, when Richardson went down and Shaq Leonard returned from injury a shadow of his former self ...

Well. Four wins looked optimistic.

Until it didn't.

Until, that is, Zaire Franklin emerged as Leonard 2.0, and Minshew turned out to be more than serviceable, and, wait, what? Nine wins and a shot at the playoffs down to the last offensive snap of the season?

The immediate past might sting. But tell me the future doesn't look a whole lot brighter than it did in August, before we found out Shane Steichen could coach and the Colts looked like an actual football team with some actual thought behind it.

And how long has it been since we saw that?

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