And your winner is ...

 ... Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel. Maybe.

In other words, maybe they squeeze in the Indianapolis 500 between rain events today, and maybe they don't. Maybe it becomes the Indianapolis 252.5 or the Indianapolis 332 or the Indianapolis 415, with the weather turning everyone's strategy upside-down and inside-out. Maybe, because of that, some outlier wins because he hits the fuel/rain window right and happens to be in front when they flag the thing.

"And what outlier would that be, Mr. Blob?" you're saying now.

Hell, I don't know. Do I look like I know?

All I know is I covered the 500 for 40 years, and I've correctly predicted the winner, um, three times. Or four. I might have picked Scott Dixon when he won in 2008, but I  have this nagging feeling there's some mis-remembering going on there.

I did, however, pick Emerson Fittipaldi to win in 1989, and Gil de Ferran in 2003, and Simon Pagenaud in 2019. So that's three for sure. In forty years. Obviously (he said sarcastically) you should come to me for all your "Who's gonna win the 500?" needs.

No, I suck at this, which means I either don't know a damn thing about the Greatest Spectacle, or I know way too much and therefore am prone to over-thinking the whole deal.  Arrogance makes me suspect the latter.

So who's gonna take the milk bath today? Or tomorrow or Tuesday?

Well, the weather situation makes it a much harder call, and it was hard enough for me anyway. What's on the radar will dictate strategy today, and if what's on the radar is an approaching green blob bigger than the one Steve McQueen fought in "The Blob", everyone will bury the throttle and make a mad dash to the front. 

I predict some running into one another back in the field, if that's the case. It's why I also predict a rain-shortened race favors those who are already up front, particularly the Penske monopoly in Row 1.

In which case, I'm picking Josef Newgarden.

He'd be the first back-to-back winner in 22 years, but all that tells me is we're overdue for another one. And the last time Roger Penske swept the front row in qualifying, in 1988, Penske won with Rick Mears. So there's precedent.

Mind you, this is not to say I'm absolutely 100 percent sold on my pick. I'm looking at Scott McLaughlin and Will Power in the front row with Newgarden, and I'm thinking A) maybe this is McLaughlin's time, or B) old heads tend to prosper when weather throws a wrench into best-laid plans, and Power's one of the best of the old heads. So there you go.

Then again ...

Then again, I'm looking at Alexander Rossi, another veteran and your 2016 500 winner, sitting inside Row 2 in one of those swift McLarens. I'm looking at the other two Row 2 starters -- NASCAR refugee Kyle Larson, who's been ridiculously smooth in his first try in an IndyCar, and Santino Ferrucci, who's finished in the top ten in all four of his 500 starts and finished third last year.

And then there's Pato O'Ward, who starts eighth, and Colton Herta and Alex Palou, who start 13th and 14th. Everyone seems to think they're all going to win the 500 sooner rather than later. Why not today?

All three, I figure, will be among those beating feet toward the front early. Deeper in the field, meanwhile, Helio Castroneves, hunting for win No. 5, and Scott Dixon, the best IndyCar pilot of his generation, start side-by-side in Row 7. Don't think they'll let any grass grow under their undercarriages, either.

Still like Newgarden, however. Call it a feeling.

Probably the wrong one, but, hey. Onward.