And your winner is ...

 ... oh, sure. Like I would know.

But down in Indy today, 33 rocket ships come to the green for the Greatest Spectacle In Racing, and there'll be a flyover and "Back Home Again In Indiana" and "Taps", and, listen, if you don't think I'll feel a little empty inside because I'm not there, then you didn't cover the Big Five for 40 years. Came in with A.J.'s fourth win as a 22-year-old who knew nothin' about nothin'; signed off with Takuma Sato's first win as a 62-year-old who wasn't much smarter, but was better at hiding it.

That's a run, if I do say so myself.

And speaking of not being much smarter ...

In all those years covering the 500, I correctly picked the winner, um, five times. Or maybe four. Still a little fuzzy on 2008, when Scott Dixon won and I seem to remember picking the Iceman. Or not.

Anyway, on to the traditional Indianapolis 500 Predictions Sure To Be Wrong:

1. People Will Crash, Ray. People Most Definitely Will Crash.

It's supposed to be cool-ish and overcast at the Speedway today -- 62 is the forecast temp at race time -- and that means cold tires, and that in turn likely means a few losing arguments with the wall. I'm guessing this because I still remember 1992, another overcast day when the mercury struggled to clear the mid-50s, the windchill at race time was in the 30s, and people crashed like they were inventing a new sport.

Mario Andretti crashed. Rick Mears crashed. Emerson Fittipaldi crashed and Tom Sneva crashed and Arie Luyendyk crashed, and the polesitter, Roberto Guerrero, crashed on the parade lap. The parade lap.

Before cold tires stopped spinning on cold pavement that day, 85 laps were run under caution. Sixty-eight of the first 122 were. I think the pace car driver won bonus money that day for leading the most laps.

Nothing like that will happen today, I'm guessing. But people will crash, and yellows will fly, and it will muck up fuel windows and deface carefully laid plans. This means your winner could be some outlier who leads just five laps but the right five laps, because it's happened before.

2. That said, it won't happen today.

And if you think this means I'm not picking rookie polesitter Robert Swartzman, you've got your mind right.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Swartzman win this thing. When you're a deadline grunt covering an event as big as the 500 -- and there's none bigger in Sportsball World -- you root for storylines, and Swartzman's is a storyline from the gods. A rookie from Tel Aviv by way of St. Petersburg, Russia, driving for a rookie team, wins the 500 from the pole? Are you kidding me?

Aesop couldn't make up that fable. Add to that the kid is winsomely likable, and that the 500 has seen just three rookie winners since Graham Hill 59 years ago, and the story writes itself. 

(OK, so it doesn't. None of them do. But it would come damn close.)

Anyway ...

Anyway, Swartzman won't win this. Given everything, this might be a year when an old head takes the milk bath. Dixon, perhaps, who goes from the middle of Row 2 and whose only 500 win came on that aforementioned day 17 years ago. Or two-time winner Sato, who's starting from the middle of the front row for Rahal Letterman Lanigan and who, at 48, would be the oldest 500 winner ever. 

Or how about Helio Castroneves, who's driving for Meyer Shank his time around and somehow always gets to the front in this thing? He's shooting for a record fifth win and will have to come from the inside of Row 8 to do it, but a yellow-heavy race and scrambled pit strategies might make it easier.

Shoot. Maybe Josef Newgarden comes all the way from middle of the last row to become the only three-peat winner in 109 runnings. He'd also be the first winner in 109 runnings to come out of the last row.

3. That said, Josef Newgarden will not win.

Chances are he gets caught up in someone else's deal as he charges toward the front, just like 2022 winner Marcus Ericsson did last year when he started from the last row. Ericsson never even made it through turn one on the first lap before getting tangled up with rookie Tom Blomqvist and biting the wall. His day was over before it began.

Ericsson starts on the outside of Row 3 today for Andretti Global. Tom Blomqvist will not be anywhere near him. So he's got that going for him.

4. That said ...

I'm not picking Marcus Ericsson, either. Though I'm sorely tempted to.

He knows how to win thing thing, obviously, and he came thisclose to winning two in a row before Newgarden passed him on the last lap in 2023. He has the sort of unflappable demeanor not even this haunted ancient place can flap. And winning today would be Indy giving back what it so cruelly took away last year. The haunted ancient place has been known to do that.

Of course, it's also been known not to do that.

It's the most capricious, random place on earth, truly it is, which is why the most delusional phrase around Indy tends to be "He's due." People said it about Ted Horn back in the day, and he never won even though you could make book on him finishing in the top four every year. They said it about Andretti, the greatest American racing driver unless it's A.J. Foyt, and somehow Mario won only once in 29 starts.

And then of course there's the Dixon, the best IndyCar driver of his generation, coming up empty since 2008.

This year's Due Boys?

The smart guys in Vegas like Pato O'Ward, because Pato starts on the outside of Row 1 and came two turns from winning last year. In five starts, he's finished sixth or better four times, including second two of the last three years. He burns to win this, and he's never had a better starting position.

So, yeah. He's due.

Starting right behind him on the outside of Row 2, meanwhile, is Alex Palou, the most dominant driver in IndyCar. He's won four of the five races so far this season, including the Indy Grand Prix two weeks ago. He's the two-time defending series champ, and, at 28, he's already won the title three times.

He's not bad on Memorial Day weekend, either. Though he's never won an IndyCar race on an oval, in five starts in the 500, he's finished in the top 10 four times and the top five three times. He was fifth and fourth the last two years.

So, yeah. He's due, too.

That said ...

That said -- all of the that-saids -- I'm going with my gut. And my gut feels this is  O'Ward's year, same as my gut felt it was Simon Pagenaud's year in 2019. 

"But what about all that 'He's due' stuff, Mr. Blob?" you're saying now. "What about Ted Horn and Mario and Dixie? What about the randomness, the caprice, all that junk about haunted places and cruel fate and, I don't know, ancient runes, maybe?"

Hey. I never claimed to be consistent.

Or, you know, right most of the time. So pick accordingly.