Daytona musings

What NASCAR likes to call the Great American Race goes off again today down in Daytona, and what that means to some of us is a First Robin Of Spring moment, and what that means to others of us is "Oh, look, car racing's back."

Which is to say, NASCAR does not have the hold on the national pulse it once did.

The sport that once imagined itself as the fourth pillar of the American sporting landscape has devolved into what it always was, a niche sport whose core audience is gearheads and women who think Kasey Kahne is sexy as hell. That said, the core audience is far more expansive than it's ever been, if not nearly as expansive as NASCAR once imagined it could be. Thus all the stories this last decade or so about the decline of the sport and what has gone wrong, when actually not much of anything has gone all that wrong.

The market adjusted, is what happened. The demographics reset. It only tasted like decline because the expectations -- skewed all out of round by the unrealistic and unsustainable boom of the late '90s and early Oughts -- had changed.

And so to today, when the Blob will assume its position on the couch to watch the one stock-car race it truthfully has any interest in any more.

But having covered motorsports, including NASCAR, for four decades as a sportswriter, I feel duty bound to answer a few questions about what's going to happen when 43 really loud sponsor billboards come to the green today:

1. When will Jimmie Johnson run into someone and trigger a huge crash?

I mean, the old guy's done it twice already this week, in the Clash and in one of the two qualifying races. So it stands to reason he'll do it again today at some point.

Yes, J.J. Getting old does suck.

2. How many times will other people run into each other in the last five laps?

Twice. No, three times, including two in the last three laps. It's just what they do in plate races -- especially Daytona, which is the Super Bowl of the sport so no one's going to give an inch anywhere.

3. Speaking of plate races, is it true this is the last Daytona 500 for restrictor plates?

It is. NASCAR is doing away with restrictor plates. Of course, it's replacing them with something else that will essentially have the same effect on the cars at Daytona and Talladega, so the Big One is still going to keep happening.

Especially with Jimmie Johnson in the field.

4. Will William Byron, the youthful polesitter and future of Hendrick Motorsports along with fellow front-row starter Alex Bowman, win the race?

No. The polesitter hasn't won Daytona since Dale Jarrett 19 years ago. The last four haven't even finished in the top ten. See: plate racing.

5. So, who will win?

Beats me. Daytona is the single hardest sporting event to predict pretty much anywhere. This is because it's a plate race. Plate races are won largely through pit strategy and negotiation (i.e., choosing the right partner to push you to the front in the late stages). This means almost anyone in the entire field could win today.

Last year, for instance, the winner was Austin Dillon, who got pushed to the front by Darrell "Bubba" Wallace Jr., who made history by finishing second, the highest finish in the Daytona 500 for an African-American driver. Dillon started 14th. He had just two top-five finishes and eight top tens the rest of the season.

Today, Ryan Blaney starts 14th. Ryan Blaney finished 10th in the points last year, with one win, eight top fives and 16 top tens. So, what the hell. Pick Ryan Blaney.

Good a choice as any.