Saturday, January 18, 2020

Stupid prognostication tricks

So maybe you, too, friend, have experienced the scientific phenomenon known as "strange feelings." It's a common phenomenon, especially among those of us who like to think we know more than we do.

It's also the road to ruin, depending on what those "strange feelings" entail.

Such as: I have a strange feeling I can go sprinting out the door onto this ice-glazed sidewalk and not fall down and break something crucial.

Or: I have a strange feeling this 80-1 shot, Glue Factory, is going to pay off big, so put me down for the deed to my house.

Or even: I have a strange feeling about the Tennessee Titans.

Which I do.

Just like I had a strange feeling about the Titans a couple of weeks ago, which was that the New England Patriots were just laying for them up there in Foxborough.

That one came out about how you'd expect, given my track record. But now I have a different strange feeling.

I have a feeling that somehow, some way, the Titans are going to break a lot of hearts in Arrowhead Stadium tomorrow afternoon.

I know, I know. I watched Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs go up and down the field like a man cutting his grass last week, too. And against a pretty stout defense.

And understand, I do not necessarily want the Titans to break a lot of hearts in Arrowhead tomorrow. This is because I have a certain fondness for Arrowhead, one of the NFL's great venues. And also for the three Chiefs fans who took a certain out-of-town sportswriter under their wing one night and whisked him off to dinner with them.

I still think about those three guys sometimes, and how excited they must be now at the prospect of the Chiefs reaching the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years. And how I kind of want that to happen, just for them.

But I watched what the Titans did to the NFL's most exciting player last week in Baltimore, and how they dismantled a team that had been running roughshod over everyone for most of the season. The final was 28-12, and it wasn't that close. It was 28-6 until the Ravens scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter -- the only one of the day for an offense that was averaging a league-high 33.2 points per game coming in.

The Titans did that by doing what they do, which is demonstrably un-fancy. They simply picked up their blunt object, Derrick Henry, and beat the Ravens bloody with him. Henry ran for 195 yards, threw a touchdown pass and basically kept Lamar Jackson -- the aforementioned most exciting player -- off the field.

I could see that happening again tomorrow.

I could see the Titans throwing Henry at the Chiefs over and over again, until the Chiefs finally cry uncle. It's happened before, you see; in week 10, the Chiefs lost to the Titans, 35-32, as Henry gashed them for 188 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 8.2 yards per carry.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, meanwhile, threw for 181 yards and two scores on 13-of-19 passing. So the Chiefs' D couldn't stop him, either.

And, sure, it's not week 10 anymore. And, sure, it's in Arrowhead and not Nashville this time. And, sure, the Titans didn't slow down Mahomes, either, last time; he threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns in the week 10 loss. So there's that.

But I have a strange feeling it's going to be a 49ers-Titans Super Bowl. Put your money down now.

On Packers-Chiefs, naturally.

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