Da Prediction

I know what's going on out there this morning, America. You're trying to talk yourself into some foolishness or other.

(And, no, not, "Hey, maybe this Devin Nunes guy is onto something about the FBI." Well, he's not. He's a certifiable conspiracy kook from way back, with the track record to prove it. And so consider the source, children. Always consider the source.)

No, since it's Super Bowl Sunday, you're trying to convince yourself that the Eagles are going to win tonight. You've got your reasons: That Eagles defensive front is fearsome enough to put pressure on Tom Brady, and when you put pressure on Mr. Wonderful even he makes mistakes, and if he makes mistakes the Eagles win the turnover battle. Which is the whole key to beating the Patriots.

Oh, and That Nick Foles Guy?

Well, he wouldn't be the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl while starting three or fewer regular season games. Doug Williams and Jeff Hostetler did it, too. I mean, it was almost 30 years ago, but still.

And so: The Eagles are going to win this thing!

I know. I have had similar thoughts in the last few days. They're solid thoughts, frankly. It's been pretty hard resisting them.

But resist I do, because everything about tonight comes back to this: These are the Patriots they're playing.

In other words, it's Belichick and Brady vs. a bunch of guys who've never played in one of these things before. And this thing is different. And this football team is different.

It's a football team whose sheer volume of accomplishment gets inside opponents' heads, even opponents who are, on paper, better than the Patriots are. Jacksonville was, and Jacksonville lost, even though the Jaguars led almost the entire game. The Falcons were better in last year's Super Bowl, right up until the moment they blew a 25-point lead. And the Eagles?

They're better, too. That defensive front is indeed fearsome. Foles might actually duplicate what he did in the NFC title game, though it's not likely. And even if he doesn't, the chances the Eagles strike first tonight are pretty good, because look what happened last week, when, once they got the lead, they went on to blow out the Vikings 38-7.

Here's the problem with all that: They're not playing the Vikings anymore.

Which means if they get a lead, they're going to start looking back over their shoulders. Jacksonville did it. Atlanta did it last year. And guaranteed the Eagles start playing the run-the-clock game, too, because it's the Patriots, and this is what the Patriots do to you.

Trouble is, it never works. In fact it plays right into Belichick's and Brady's hands. The only way you beat them is by continuing to attack them. But because it's the Patriots, and because they come into this with eight Lombardi Trophies already, it's really, really hard for teams not to fall into the trap of "Hey, we've got 'em down! The Patriots! Run, clock! Run!"

And so, yes, I'm picking the Patriots. Again. God knows I don't want to. God knows I'd like to believe the Eagles can do this, especially considering how good they looked in the NFC title game.

Here's the problem with that: The people who are charged with running numbers on stuff have run the numbers on that. And it turns out the teams that blow out their opponents in the conference championship game actually go on to lose the Super Bowl more often than they win it.

So history's against the Eagles there, too. And so: Patriots 24, Eagles 20.

Well, crap.