Preview ... or not

 Christian Lundgaard won the Indianapolis Grand Prix yesterday at the Speedway, bringing it home for Arrow McLaren with a nervy outside pass of David Malukas with 18 laps to go. This immediately makes him the favorite for the Indianapolis 500 two weeks hence.

"Wait, what?" you're saying now.

I said ... this makes him the favorite for the Indianapolis 500 two weeks hence. Because doesn't the winner of the Grand Prix always go on to win the Greatest Spectacle?

"No," you're saying.

Well, Alex Palou won both last year.

"But Alex Palou won damn near everything last year."

And, um, let's see, didn't Simon Pagenaud win both in 2019? And Will Power in 2018?

"Well, yes. But ..."

But what?

"What about all the other years?"

Ah.

OK, so maybe Lundgaard's win wasn't a preview of coming attractions, although he had his best finish in the Big One last year, coming home seventh. And he's got one of the premier rides in IndyCar with Arrow McLaren. And he's got three other top-ten finishes so far in the young IndyCar season, including second at Alabama.

So, yeah. It could happen. But it could also (and probably more likely) NOT happen.

At any rate, Lundgaard's in the conversation now. But you know who raised an eyebrow in these precincts yesterday?

The guy who finished third.

That guy was Graham Rahal, and it was his second podium in the last three races, and, listen, who knows, who knows. Indy in May is the quirkiest of places, and it has a habit of occasionally meting out both triumph and heartbreak with wild caprice. 

How else to explain the fact Mario Andretti, the greatest American race driver of all time if A.J. Foyt isn't, won the 500 just once in 29 tries? Or Scott Dixon, the greatest IndyCar racer of his generation, winning it at 27 in 2008 and never since? Or Buddy Rice winning in 2004 and then virtually disappearing, putting up just two more wins, five poles and five podiums across an eight-year IndyCar run?

Graham Rahal?

Indy in May's mostly been a nightmare for him, especially lately. In 18 starts he's finished third twice, most recently in 2020. Since then he's finished 32nd, 14th, 22nd, 15th and 17th. Qualifying has been even worse; since 2010, he's started 26th or worse seven times.

And the last three 500s?

Well, in 2023 he failed to qualify but replaced the injured Stefan Wilson in his Dreyer-Reinbold seat and started 33rd. He finished 22nd.

In 2024 he started dead last again and finished 15th.

Last year he started 28th and finished 17th.

But, again, it's Indy. History's eddies course down the weird channels here. So maybe, finally, it will be his year.

Or Christian Lundgaard's. 

Or Alex Palou's again.

Or Josef Newgarden's, Scott Dixon's, Pato O'Ward's, David Malukas's, Kyle Kirkwood's, on and on and on.

Flip a coin. Good as predictor as any.