On to May

 Someone asked me the other day who I thought was going to win the Indianapolis 500, I guess on account of they thought I knew something about it. This will happen when you covered the Greatest Spectacle for 40 years, and are a certified and somewhat notorious Indy 500 nerd.

(Which I am. Totally. Go ahead, give me a year and I'll tell you who won without looking it up. That is deeply nerdish stuff, friends.)

Anyway, I said, heck, I don't know, which is good news for IndyCar. It means you can't just say "Alex Palou" and be right three-fourths of the time, even though Alex Palou is top dog in IndyCar these days by a considerable margin. He even won the Big One last season, on his way to a fourth IndyCar championship in the last five years.

Here's the thing, though: It was only his first Indy 500 victory.

That's because Indianapolis is a quirky old place, and not just because they'll drop the green on the 110th running of the 500 there in a month or so. It's a quirky place because, for all its age and history, it sometimes behaves with a a child-like capriciousness.

Withholds its affections. Punishes the careless/inattentive/arrogant. Makes some people wait and wait and wait some more, while conferring its favor on others when they least expect.

It's why Mario Andretti, one of the two greatest American racers in history, only won the 500 once in 29 tries.

It's why the two grandees of this IndyCar generation, Scott Dixon and Will Power, have  won the 500 just once each in a combined 41 starts.

It's why Josef Newgarden, a two-time IndyCar champion, went a dozen 500 starts before slamming down the milk -- and then did it two years in a row,

A guy named J.R. Hildebrand had the Spectacle in his pocket one year, only to lose control and hit the wall on the very last corner of the very last lap, allowing the late Dan Wheldon to claim his second 500 win. Louis Schneider, George Robson and Buddy Rice  have their faces on the Borg-Warner Trophy; Michael Andretti, Lloyd Ruby and Dan Gurney do not. 

On and on it goes. One of the most amazing pieces of engineering ever to race at Indy -- the sleek, brutish Novi -- never won there. Ditto the STP turbines. But Coyotes, Chaparrals and Peugeots did.

This year?

Well, it'll be either a Chevy or a Honda, IndyCar having long abandoned the automotive laboratory for comfortable conformity. And who'll take the checkers on Memorial Day weekend?

Take your pick.

Maybe it'll be Kyle Kirkwood, who has one win and five top fives in five races so far this season. Or young David Malukas, who has four top tens. Or Newgarden for a third time, who got off to horrible start but has a win and a seventh-place finish in the last two events, which suggests he's got things sorted out just in time for May.

Want someone who's due and then some?

Pato O'Ward's your man. In six 500s, he's finished lower than sixth just one time. In the last five, he's finished second twice, third once and fourth once. In those same five starts, he's led 95 laps. 

Of course, all that means is he could be the next Michael or Ruby or Gurney. Always there, but never, you know, there.

At any rate, it's on to May and Indianapolis. And on to more unhelpfulness from this guy, who knows nothing about the Indy 500 so much as he knows how utterly unknowable it is.

Which is why, when that someone asked who was going to win the 500 this year, I shrugged and said this: 

"Well ... you can never go wrong with Alex Palou."

Now that's what you call your insight.