Da Prediction

 "Don't do it," the little voice is telling me.

It's in my ear, whispering again, and I know I should listen, I know I'm damn fool if I don't, I know all my logic and common sense and sober analysis are as a sounding brass (so the Bible says) ...

"Don't. Do it," the voice whispers again.

But ...

"DON'T," the voice fairly hisses.

And then: "Ever ... pick ... against ... Mahomes."

This is sound advice, because when it's magic vs. analytics, I'm almost always going to go with magic. I've even crafted a sort of logic for it this time: If  Patrick Mahomes can go out there on one leg and somehow beat a Bengals team that was demonstrably better on paper, what will he do today in the Superb Owl, when his bum leg isn't quite so bum? Against, again, another team that's better on paper?

It's a seductive line of reasoning, and it's backed by the idea that the better-on-paper team, the Philadelphia Eagles, kinda got in on a pass two weeks ago. Pretty hard to lose to a team without a quarterback, after all. Pretty hard not to win in a walk, in fact, which the Eagles did by beating QB-less San Francisco 31-7.

However.

However ... I keep thinking about the fact Mahomes still won't be 100 percent today. And about the fact the Kansas City Chiefs are much more banged up than the Eagles. And about that fearsome pass rush of the Eagles, and that clingy secondary that makes it hard for receivers to get open, and what happens if Mahomes gets hit, because it's a virtual lock he'll get hit at some point tonight.

I can see him re-injuring the ankle and hobbling through the rest of the game.

I can see Philly completely taking away the Chiefs' depleted receiving corps.

I can see Jalen Hurts doing just enough Jalen Hurts things, and I can see history, too, because there's another voice in my ear telling me if history says you never pick against Mahomes, it also says something else.

Which  is, the best defense usually fares pretty well in the Super Bowl. From the early Packers to the '69 Jets to the '70 Chiefs to the Pittsburgh Steel Curtain to the Dallas Doomsday to the Bears 46, and right on down the line to the Seattle Legion of Boom and others.

The Eagles are this year's version of all that.

And so: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20.

"You're a fool!" the little voice snarls.

Yeah, well. Woudn't be the first time.