And now, your kiss of death

I know better than this. Shoot, everyone with the IQ of sheetrock knows better than this.

You know that horse race they run today out in New York? The Belmont Stakes?

If there's some My Friend Flicka in it who has a chance to win the Triple Crown, you don't pick him. Ever. Ever, ever, ever ... ever.

Fourteen times since the Carter Administration, My Friend Flickas have come to the Belmont with a chance to win the Triple Crown, and 14 times they've failed. And 14 times I thought for sure (and, come on, so did you) this was the year.

I thought Spectacular Bid was gonna do it and Big Brown  was gonna do it and Alysheba was gonna do it. I thought Funny Cide was a lock and Smarty Jones a cinch and Real Quiet a done deal. Bet loudly on Sunday Silence. Drop something shiny on California Chrome. All that.

All for nothing.

Bid lost and Big Brown lost and, well, all of them lost. But like the toddler irresistibly drawn to the hot stove, I never learn.

That's why I'm saying American Pharoah is gonna do it today.

He's the one. He's got the goods. I'm absolutely sure this time.

He fought off Firing Line in the Kentucky Derby and then destroyed everyone in the slop at the Preakness, and so I don't think those extra furlongs will faze him at all in the Belmont. Besides, who's gonna beat him? Frosted? Madefromlucky (because, look, he's got "lucky" in his name!)? Materiality?

Please. Francis the Talking Mule would have a better shot.

And, yes, I know, a lot of bettors are liking Frosted because he sat out the Preakness and he finished strong in the Derby. And a lot of them are liking Materiality because his owner is Todd Pletcher, and Pletcher has won the Belmont twice and been runnerup four times.

But, no. This is the year. I feel it. Get your coinage down now.

Whoa. Look at that sudden run on Frosted and Materiality.