Da (non) Prediction

 I know it's Madness Week again because again people are making tragic assumptions, and I'm talking mainly about the assumption that certain people have a certain expertise because they had a certain job for a very long time.

I'm talking about me, of course. Male, American, professional sportswriter for 38 years and occasional professional sportswriter since.

Because of that, people think I know stuff. And this week what they think I know is who's gonna win the NCAA Tournament -- aka the Big Dance, aka the Madness, aka That Thing Purdue Never Wins, Much To The Delight Of Mean IU Fans.

"I have no idea," is my stock answer.

"Oh, come on," they say.

"No, really. I don't," I reply.

Then I tell them in all the years I used to fill out a bracket, I picked the winner one time. Once. And it was Duke, which hardly counts as a prediction.

This year?

This year I haven't the faintest.

That's because the transfer portal and NIL have earthquak-ed the landscape into a cataclysmic jumble. Everyone has players now, and who has what players from year to year is an ever-shifting kaleidoscope. And so a kid that maybe was playing for, I don't know, Bemidji State last year is helping, say, North Carolina or Arizona to the Final Four. Or Florida Atlantic or San Diego State, for that matter.

Both made the Final Four last year. Both are back in the field this year, but don't bet on either getting to the Final Four again.  This year it'll probably be St. Mary's or Utah State or some other outlier.

"Aha!" you're saying now. "So you are making a prediction!"

No, not really. I just picked two teams at random as an example of how wonderfully capricious this tournament is likely to be.

But if you insist, here are a few things I'm sure to be wrong about. Call it my Elite Eight:

1. The Big Ten will crap out again.

(Because it's the Big Ten and it always does)

2. Purdue won't make the Final Four but won't lose in the first round again.

(Because that Big Ten thing)

3. Houston will probably make the Final Four and may win the whole schmear.

(Because the Blob does not want to see the national media roll out some stomach-turning Kelvin Sampson Redemption story, so of course it will probably happen)

4. Auburn will probably get to the Final Four and may win the whole schmear.

(See "3", vis-a-vis Bruce Pearl, who's kind of slimy, too)

5. UConn could repeat if head coach Dan Hurley doesn't pop an aneurysm. 

(Because he's an excitable boy)

6. Teams with quick, athletic, veteran guards will fare better than teams without.

(Because they almost always do)

7. Duke will not win the title unless Kyle Filipowski trips a few more guys.

(Because Kyle is a Dukie and that's what Dukies do)

And last but not least ...

8. Iowa State will win it all.

(Because the last time I picked Iowa State, the Cyclones got knocked out in the first round and incinerated my bracket. So what the hell, this year they'll probably go all the was just to taunt me)