Da prediction

In which the Blob once again embarrasses itself by, I don't know, picking Marco Andretti again, or Scott Dixon again, or Helio Castroneves because he's gotta win No. 4 sometime, right?

The Blob is supposed to know this stuff, on account of it's been hanging around the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in May for most of its life, and therefore knows all of its quirks and odd currents of luck, hard and otherwise. And yet I got nothin', here on the morning of the 103rd running of the Indianapolis 500.

Wait. I do have something.

The Blob predicts rain. In mass quantities or otherwise.

("Oh, bold pick there!" you're saying. "Everyone who can look at a radar screen knows folks are gonna get wet today!")

OK, fine. I will predict. I correctly predicted the winner exactly three times in 40 years of covering the 500 as an Allegedly Knowledgeable Observer, but my willingness to look the fool has rarely been fazed by epic ineptitude. So ...

So, I predict the winner will not be Sage Karam, James Hinchcliffe or Kyle Kaiser. I also predict it will not be Dixon, which might come as a shock to some considering how many times I've picked the guy since he won in 2008.

This is because Karam, Hinchcliffe and Kaiser start in Row 11 today, and no one, in 102 tries, has ever won the 500 from Row 11. In fact, no one has ever won the 500 from deeper in the field than 28th, and the last time that happened was 1936.

So. No soup for Sage, Hinch or Kyle.

And Dixon?

He starts 18th. No driver has ever won the 500 from the 18 hole. In fact, only one driver has won from farther back than 18th starting position in 21 years.

This does not mean it couldn't happen, of course. In a place that is its traditions, no tradition is more ironclad than Indy's stubborn unpredictability. Weirdness tends to happen at this ancient, haunted sprawl, and whether that is the work of all the impish ghosts that walk the grounds or simply history throwing its weight around, it is as much a part of the fabric here as all those bricks that lie beneath decades of asphalt.

A $6 part fails, and one of the most iconic racecars in Indy history -- Andy Granatelli's STP turbine -- dies six laps from a dominating victory.

Young JR Hildebrand successfully negotiates 799 left turns, then can't make the last one, hits the wall and an astonished Dan Wheldon winds up chugging the milk in victory lane.

Sam Hornish Jr. comes out of nowhere to catch Marco. A rookie of whom no one had heard a lot -- Alexander Rossi -- stretches his last tank of fuel to its final vapors and wins the 100th running. Scott Goodyear gets docked for passing the pace car, and a youngster with a shining name, Jacques Villeneuve, winds up taking the checkers despite at one time being two laps down.

On and on. As the late, great Hunter S. Thompson was fond of saying, bad craziness.

So what happens today, if it happens today?

Symmetry tempts the Blob to, yes, once again pick Marco, on account of it's the 50th anniversary of Grandpa Mario's lone 500 victory. He's had a brutal season so far, but he always seems to run well at Indy -- he's finished in the top ten eight times in 13 starts -- and he rolls away from the inside of Row 4 today. So, it could happen.

Of course, it won't. Indy is notoriously allergic to symmetry, for one thing. And Marco is, well, an Andretti. So, no.

Maybe this is the Year of the Kids, because half the first two rows are 25 or younger. You've got Spencer Pigot (25), Ed Jones (24) and Colton Herta (19) up there, a sign that a new generation is ready to emerge. But the Blob doesn't get a strong vibe from any of them. Maybe next year.

Helio?

It's been a full decade since he won his third 500, and history says he's due. A.J. Foyt went a full decade before finally winning his fourth in 1977, after all. Symmetry again.

But ... see above.

Will Power? Josef Newgarden? Rossi?

You couldn't go wrong picking any of them, and Newgarden in particular feels like a guy whose time is eventually going to come around here. He comes to Indy leading the points, he starts in the middle of Row 3, and he has one win and three podium finishes in five starts this year. So you figure he'll be there at the end.

Dixon, too, voodoo starting position and all. He has four podium finishes himself so far this season, and, after 11 dry years, he's due, too. And what would be more Indy than defying convention?

Which is why, after much deliberation and with much trepidation, I'm picking ... Simon Pagenaud.

As the polesitter, his is a voodoo starting spot, too, given that no one has won the 500 from the pole since Castroneves did it a decade ago. Yet the polesitter has won 43 times in 102 races, and, if Pagenaud came to Indy in danger of losing his ride after an extended dry spell, this has demonstrably been his May.

At the front of the month, he won the IndyCar Grand Prix of Indianapolis with a masterful drive in the rain. A week ago, he won the pole for the 500. And, like Newgarden, he's another Penske driver who feels like a 500 winner in waiting.

The Blob says the wait ends today -- or tomorrow, if the rains come as predicted. And you know what that means.

It means James Hinchcliffe is going to win, probably.

It is, after all, Indy. Let the bad craziness begin.